Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Mornin' Musins': It's Going To Be Amazing!

The weather forecast informs me that today's high temperature will be 49°. It also informs me that tomorrow's low temperature will be 58°. I'm so excited! I'm going to stay up until midnight tonight just to see what it's like when, contrary to all known laws of thermodynamics, the ambient external temperature instantaneously jumps 9°! It's going to be amazing!*

* Seriously though, am I missing something? These forecasts are generated by computer models, yes? Speaking as a geek, it would be trivial, easy as kiss-my-hand,** to add some validation logic to ensure that the model doesn't generate physically impossible forecasts. Hmm, seems like somebody's asleep at the code editor.

** What the heck is that expression about? (Well, I suppose kissing one's hand is easier than kissing other parts of one's person.)

3 comments:

  1. Could you spell out the premises and steps that lead to the absurd result? I don't quite get it.

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  2. Unless I'm woefully jumbled (which is always a possibility):

    The forecast asserts that today's high temperature is 49°. So the absolute warmest it could be at 11:59:59 tonight (according to the forecast) is 49°.

    The forecast asserts that tomorrow's low is 58°. So the absolute coldest it could be at 12:00:00 tomorrow morning (according to the forecast) is 58°.

    So, in the momentary transition from today to tomorrow, the temperature must jump from 49° to 58°, an increase of 9°.

    I'm no expert, but that sounds unlikely.

    To generalize the principal: I would assert that the high temperature on any given day must be greater than or equal to the low temperatures of the adjacent days. Conversely, the low temperature on any given day must be less than or equal to the high temperatures of the adjacent days.

    That's my reckoning. Geek out!

    (My word verification is "molemule". I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds significant. I suppose if moles were contraband, and you smuggled them into other countries, you would be a "molemule".)

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  3. I think the problem with the weather (what's to complain about?) is these fluctuations. A few days of 40s and I would adapt and think nothing of it. These swings in a few days' time are what are discombobulating my internal thermostat. I'm looking forward to tomorrow but, as we like to say in Connecticut, there's something predictable about New England. One thing is that you're always cold.

    Keep warm!

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